Child-safety risk scoring · documentation hub

AnomalyShield — reports, methodology & frequently asked questions

Everything AnomalyShield publishes in one place: the detection methodology, the confidence in its top-scoring outputs, the Sweden estimate, and the prevalence brief in four languages. A score is a risk signal for human review — never a determination of guilt.

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7Documents
4Languages (prevalence brief)
25Pages — full methodology
100%Sourced & reproducible
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Core documents

Technical · 25 pages

Methodology & Confidence Evaluation

The full scoring methodology and a compliance-grade analysis of how much confidence to place in the highest-scoring outputs — calibration, precision@k, fairness and governance. For a regulatory audience.

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Plain language · 5 pages

The 10,000-user explainer

What an evaluation of 10,000 users would show, and how confident we are about the top 10 people identified — with a simple confusion matrix and friendly graphs.

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Estimate · 6 pages

Sweden / Facebook estimate

How many Facebook accounts in Sweden would be flagged at different settings, and how many are likely real — sourced population data, illustrative detection rates, low/base/high ranges.

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Reference

Prevalence brief — Sweden

How many people in Sweden have a sexual interest in children, the path from attraction to offending, and why the model uses one base rate — not ethnicity. Choose your language below.

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Prevalence brief — choose your language

EN
English
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SV
Svenska
Ladda ner
FI
Suomi
Lataa
DE
Deutsch
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Questions

Frequently asked questions

What is AnomalyShield?
A risk-scoring system that ranks accounts by the estimated risk of age-inappropriate adult-to-minor contact, so that trained reviewers look at the highest-risk cases first. It combines a content-based score and a social-contact (network) score into one 0–100 composite. It is a prioritisation tool, not an adjudication tool.
What does a score actually mean?
It means "look here first" — nothing more. A score only changes the order of the human review queue. It never suspends, reports, names or otherwise acts on anyone by itself. A high score is not a finding of guilt.
How accurate are the top-scoring flags?
At the very top of the ranking, most flags are genuine (illustratively about 9 of the top 10); accuracy falls as you flag more widely, because genuine cases are rare. The full calibration, precision@k and uncertainty analysis is in the Methodology & Confidence report. All system-specific numbers are illustrative until replaced by a real evaluation.
How many accounts would be flagged in Sweden?
It depends on the setting. Flagging the top ~0.05% of adult Facebook accounts (~2,900) would surface roughly 570 genuine cases and about 2,330 false alarms for human review — catching about one in five of the estimated real cases. Tighter settings are more accurate but narrower. See the Sweden estimate.
How many people in Sweden have a sexual interest in children?
Depending on definition, on the order of 40,000–210,000 men; the commonly cited ~1% clinical base rate gives about 42,000. Far fewer offend, and only a few thousand are actively, detectably offending online at any one time. Full breakdown and sources in the prevalence brief (EN · SV · FI · DE).
Does immigration change that number?
No. Pedophilia is a sexual age-orientation found across all populations at broadly similar rates; there is no credible evidence it is several-fold more common in any ethnic or religious group. Child marriage is a different phenomenon (post-pubertal adolescents, driven by law and custom), and the "legal from 9" premise is inaccurate. The model therefore uses one population base rate and flags behaviour, not origin — weighting by ethnicity would manufacture discriminatory false positives and breach GDPR and the EU AI Act.
What happens to a flagged account?
A trained human reviews it. If the reviewer finds apparent exploitation, the case is escalated through lawful channels — the NCMEC CyberTipline in the US, the IWF in the UK, EU trusted-flagger routes — initiated by the human finding and fully logged. The score is never the basis for action on its own.
Are people ever named or exposed publicly?
No. Public naming, "watch-lists" and any kind of exposure are prohibited uses. A false accusation in this domain can destroy an innocent person's life, which is exactly why the scored list stays inside the safety team and every flag is reviewed by a human.
Are these numbers real measurements?
Population and usage figures are real and sourced (Statistics Sweden, DataReportal). The detection rates (precision, recall, base rate) are illustrative — drawn from the reference model — because no evaluation of a live system was available. They are placeholders to be replaced with measured values.
What about privacy and the law?
The design is built around the GDPR (meaningful human review under Article 22, heightened protection for children's data, data minimisation and full auditability) and treats the system as likely high-risk under the EU AI Act. Fairness is audited across languages and groups.
Where do the figures come from?
Public statistics (Statistics Sweden), platform data (DataReportal/Meta), and peer-reviewed research (Dombert 2016; Seto; the Dunkelfeld/Troubled Desire project; the 2025 Lancet meta-analysis) plus official child-safety bodies (NCMEC, IWF, WeProtect). Each report carries its own source list.
Editorial policy

How to read this material

What this measures

Risk signals and base rates to prioritise human review — not findings of guilt about any individual.

No group targeting

One population base rate. The system flags behaviour, not identity, national origin, religion or belief.

Sources

Public statistics and peer-reviewed research. Estimates are reproducible from the cited rates and population figures.

Uncertainty & correction

Figures are order-of-magnitude estimates and may fall outside the stated ranges. Methodological corrections are welcome.